A Party Divided

Introduction

The British political establishment is currently navigating a period of significant turbulence, characterised by deep internal divisions within the main political parties and a palpable sense of unease among the electorate. The Conservative Party, still reeling from a historic election defeat in 2024, finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with an identity crisis and a membership that appears to be losing faith in its leadership. The rise of Reform UK as a potent force on the right has further fractured the conservative vote, prompting calls from within the Tory ranks for a strategic alliance to counter the electoral dominance of the Labour Party. This existential struggle is personified by the precarious position of the current Conservative leader, Kemi Badenoch, who faces mounting pressure from a grassroots movement that is increasingly vocal in its desire for a change at the helm. Simultaneously, the Labour government, despite its substantial parliamentary majority, is not immune to internal strife. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is confronted with the challenge of maintaining cabinet unity in the face of contentious proposals for tax rises, a necessary measure to address the country's precarious financial situation. The convergence of these internal party conflicts creates a complex and unpredictable political environment, where the future trajectory of both major parties, and indeed the nation, hangs in the balance.

The Conservative Conundrum: A Crisis of Leadership and Identity

The Conservative Party, an institution that has dominated British politics for much of its history, is currently experiencing a period of profound introspection and internal conflict. Following a significant electoral setback in 2024, the party has struggled to redefine its purpose and direction in a rapidly changing political landscape. This struggle is most evident in the growing dissatisfaction with the leadership of Kemi Badenoch, who assumed the role in November 2024 after a contested leadership election.

Mounting Pressure on Kemi Badenoch

A recent YouGov poll has sent shockwaves through the Conservative Party, revealing that half of its members believe Kemi Badenoch should be replaced as leader before the next general election. Only 46% of the membership expressed a desire for her to remain in her post. This stark finding underscores the deep-seated unease within the party's grassroots, who appear to be losing confidence in Badenoch's ability to steer the party back to electoral success. The sentiment among Conservative MPs is reportedly equally gloomy, with many privately expressing concerns that are now being reflected in the views of the wider membership.

The criticisms levelled against Badenoch are multifaceted. Some point to a perceived lack of clear policy direction and a failure to effectively challenge the Labour government. Her early months as leader were reportedly focused on fundraising to prevent the party from financial collapse, which may have contributed to a period of policy silence. Others have questioned her performance in parliamentary debates and her media appearances, suggesting a failure to connect with the electorate and articulate a compelling vision for the country's future. The party's consistently low polling numbers, often placing them in third place behind Labour and Reform UK, have further fuelled the narrative of a leadership in crisis.

The YouGov poll also identified Robert Jenrick as the preferred alternative leader among party members. In hypothetical head-to-head contests, Jenrick consistently outperforms other senior Conservative figures. While a potential rematch against Badenoch would be a closer contest, the fact that a significant portion of those who voted for her in 2024 would now switch their allegiance to Jenrick is a telling indictment of her leadership.

The Spectre of the Mini-Budget and the Quest for Economic Credibility

Compounding the party's leadership woes is the lingering shadow of the 2022 mini-Budget, a fiscal event that continues to haunt the Conservatives and undermine their reputation for economic competence. The mini-Budget, introduced during the brief premiership of Liz Truss, proposed a series of unfunded tax cuts that sent financial markets into turmoil, leading to a sharp fall in the value of the pound and a significant increase in borrowing costs. The political and economic fallout was immediate and severe, ultimately leading to Truss's resignation after just 49 days in office.

The repercussions of this "damaging episode" are still being felt today. Senior Conservative figures are now openly acknowledging the mistakes of that period, in a clear attempt to distance the party from a policy that is widely seen as a significant political and economic miscalculation. Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, has been particularly vocal in his criticism, describing the mini-Budget as "careless, cack-handed and un-conservative." He has stressed the need for the party to be "honest" about its past errors in order to rebuild public trust. Jenrick's public contrition is indicative of a broader recognition within the party that restoring its reputation for fiscal responsibility is a prerequisite for any future electoral success.

The challenge for the Conservatives is to convince the electorate that they have learned the lessons of the past and can once again be trusted to manage the economy. This will be a "big task," as Jenrick himself has admitted. The party is now seeking to position itself as the party of "sound money" and "fiscal responsibility," a message that was central to the recent Conservative Party conference. Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride has unveiled proposals for significant public spending cuts and tax reductions for businesses and young people, in a clear attempt to draw a line under the Truss era and present a more sober and credible economic vision.

The Siren Call of Reform: A Pact or a Merger?

The internal divisions within the Conservative Party are not limited to leadership and economic policy. A significant and growing faction within the party is now openly advocating for a strategic alliance with Reform UK, the right-wing populist party led by Nigel Farage. The rise of Reform UK has been a major disruptive force in British politics, attracting a significant number of disaffected Conservative voters and splitting the right-of-centre vote in many constituencies.

The aforementioned YouGov poll revealed the extent of the desire for a pact among the Conservative membership. A staggering 64% of Tory members are in favour of an electoral pact with Reform UK, which would involve the two parties agreeing not to stand candidates against each other in key seats. Furthermore, 46% of members would support a full merger of the two parties. These figures demonstrate a clear appetite at the grassroots level for a united right-wing front to challenge the Labour Party.

The arguments in favour of a pact are primarily electoral. Proponents, such as Conservative MP Andrew Rosindell, argue that the current electoral system cannot accommodate two broadly conservative parties without leading to a divided vote and, consequently, a Labour government. The results of the 2024 general election, where the number of Reform UK votes exceeded the margin of defeat for the Conservatives in over 170 constituencies, provide compelling evidence for this argument.

However, the prospect of a pact or merger is not without its complexities and controversies. Kemi Badenoch has publicly ruled out a national deal with Reform, while Nigel Farage has positioned his party as a direct challenge to the Conservative establishment. Despite this, there are signs that a more pragmatic approach may be emerging at a local level, with Badenoch acknowledging that local Conservative associations could form coalitions with Reform in council elections.

The debate over a potential alliance with Reform UK goes to the very heart of the Conservative Party's identity. It raises fundamental questions about the party's future direction and its willingness to compromise its traditional principles in the pursuit of electoral power. The significant support for a pact among the membership suggests that for many, the threat of a continued Labour government outweighs any ideological reservations they may have about aligning with Reform UK.

Labour's Own Troubles: A Cabinet Divided

While the Conservative Party grapples with its internal demons, the Labour government is facing its own set of challenges. Despite securing a commanding majority in the 2024 general election, Prime Minister Keir Starmer is now contending with a growing rift within his cabinet over the direction of economic policy. The central point of contention is the forthcoming Budget and the prospect of significant tax rises to address a substantial black hole in the country's finances, estimated to be between £30 billion and £40 billion.

The Tax Rise Dilemma

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has been tasked with the unenviable challenge of balancing the books while also delivering on the government's promises of investment in public services and economic growth. While Reeves has pledged not to raise the rates of income tax, national insurance, or VAT, there is growing speculation that other taxes, such as capital gains tax and inheritance tax, could be targeted. Starmer himself has hinted at this possibility, stating that those with the "widest shoulders should bear the heaviest burden."

This approach, however, has not been met with universal approval within the cabinet. A powerful group of ministers on the right of the party has expressed concerns that the government is already going too far in targeting the wealthy and businesses. They point to measures such as the abolition of non-dom status and the imposition of VAT on private school fees as policies that are "anti-aspiration" and could drive wealth away from the UK. These ministers are instead advocating for "efficiency savings" and cuts to public spending to fill the fiscal gap.

This internal division reflects a long-standing ideological tension within the Labour Party between its more centrist and left-wing factions. The current debate over tax policy is a modern manifestation of this historical divide, with one side prioritising wealth redistribution and social equality, and the other placing a greater emphasis on economic growth and fiscal prudence.

The Challenge of Maintaining Unity

The challenge for Keir Starmer is to navigate these internal divisions and forge a consensus on a credible and coherent economic strategy. The forthcoming Budget will be a crucial test of his leadership and his ability to maintain party unity. A failure to do so could not only undermine the government's authority but also create an opportunity for the opposition parties to exploit the divisions within Labour's ranks.

The internal debates within the Labour Party are not just about economic policy; they are also about the party's fundamental identity and its vision for the country. The party's 2025 conference was seen by some as an exercise in denial, with a focus on attacking political opponents rather than engaging in a serious debate about the country's economic challenges. This approach, while potentially effective in mobilising the party's base, risks alienating a broader electorate that is looking for a government with a clear and credible plan for the future.

The Broader Political Context and Future Implications

The internal turmoil within both the Conservative and Labour parties is taking place against a backdrop of significant political and economic uncertainty. The UK is still grappling with the long-term consequences of Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, all of which have placed immense strain on the country's economy and public services.

The rise of Reform UK and the fracturing of the right-wing vote have created a new and unpredictable dynamic in British politics. The Conservative Party, for the first time in its long history, is facing a serious challenge to its position as the dominant force on the right. The outcome of the internal debate over a pact with Reform will have profound implications for the future of conservatism in the UK. A decision to merge or form a pact could lead to a significant realignment of the political landscape, but it could also alienate more moderate Conservative voters and further entrench the party's shift to the right.

The Conservative Party's recent policy announcements at its annual conference, including a commitment to leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and to scrap the 2008 Climate Change Act, suggest that the party is already moving in a more hardline direction in an attempt to win back voters from Reform. These policies have been met with criticism from some senior Tory figures, who have warned that they could be a "catastrophic mistake" and push the party further to the political extremes.

For the Labour Party, the challenge is to maintain its electoral coalition and deliver on its promises of change. The internal divisions over tax policy are a potential obstacle to this, and Keir Starmer will need to demonstrate strong leadership to keep his party united. The government's ability to navigate the country's economic challenges and restore a sense of stability and prosperity will be the ultimate measure of its success.

The current political climate is one of flux and uncertainty. The traditional certainties of British politics appear to be dissolving, and the future direction of the country is very much in question. The internal struggles within the Conservative and Labour parties are not just a matter of internal party politics; they are a reflection of the broader challenges and divisions facing the country as a whole. The resolutions of these internal conflicts will have a profound impact on the future of British politics for years to come.